One of the things I really am getting tired of in the media these days, and especially the sports media, is the everyday over-hyping over nearly everything that happens. At the end of Week #1 of the NFL season after 14 quarterbacks passed for 300 yards including 4 who passed for over 400 yards, the experts and analysts all talked about how the NFL was now moving (if not already in) an pass-first league with offensive numbers moving toward Arena Football realms.
I think those experts and analysts are just blowhards.
They puff up everything that perspective is lost in minutes and everything from players, to games, to coaches, to champions is skewed so badly you'd think every week of a sports season in Armageddon.
This is the reason I entitled my take on the sports world as, LoudMouth Sports.
Everyone else is a loudmouth, I just want to fit right in.Hopefully, I will bring a bit of common sense and factual discussion to the conversation.
Onward with my take:
Week #2 of the 2011 NFL season showed a bit of a slow-down in quarterbacks passing for 300 yards. Week #1 had 14 quarterbacks throwing those numbers, while Week #2 only had 9 quarterbacks throwing for those yards. That works out to a 36% decrease in 300 yard passers for the week.
Within those 300 yard-plus passers, two of them threw for over 400 yards (Tom Brady and Cam Newton). Week #1 had 4 quarterbacks passing for 400 yards. That's a 50% decrease in 400 yard passers for the week,
Teams whose quarterbacks passed for 400 yards in Week #2 lead their teams to 1 win and 1 loss. For the season, teams with quarterbacks who passed for 400 yards have a won-loss record of 3-2 (60% winning percentage).
These are the quarterbacks who passed for 300 yards or more in Week #2:
Newton, Carolina: 432 LOSS Team Record: 0-2
Brady, New England: 423 WIN Team Record: 2-0
Rivers, San Diego: 378 LOSS Team Record: 1-1
Hasselbeck, Tennessee: 358 WIN Team Record: 1-1
Romo, Dallas: 345 WIN Team Record: 1-1
Dalton, Cincinnati: 332 LOSS Team Record: 1-1
Bradford, St. Louis: 331 LOSS Team Record: 0-2
Campbell, Oakland: 323 LOSS Team Record: 1-1
Rodgers, Green Bay: 308 WIN Team Record: 2-0
The combined results of these teams works out to a 4 WIN/5LOSS record for the week.
Results for the year is now a 12 WINS/11 LOSSES season record.
That adds up to a 52% winning percentage.
Not very impressive.
Subtract Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady from these results (well, because they are Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady), and we get a Week #2 result of 2 WIN/5 LOSS record.
If we then take Brady and Rodgers out of the results for Week #1, that would give the 300 yard passers for Week #1 a 6 WIN/6LOSS record. The season record for 300 yard passers would then be 8 WINS/11 LOSSES, or sad 42% winning percentage.
To stay on task, we will leave our numbers true for the 300 yard passers, at their 12 WIN/11LOSS record, complete with 52% winning percentage.
In Week #2 of the NFL season there were 6 rushers who gained at least 100 yards. Week #1 had 7 rushers who accomplished the same feat. That is a 15% decrease in 100 yard rushers in Week #2.
These are the running backs who rushed for 100 yards or more in Week #2:
Peterson, Minnesota: 120 LOSS Team Record: 0-2
Jackson, Buffalo: 117 WIN Team Record: 2-0
Turner, Atlanta: 114 WIN Team Record: 1-1
Thomas, Miami: 107 LOSS Team Record: 0-2
Tate, Houston: 103 WIN Team Record: 2-0
MaGahee, Denver: 101 WIN Team Record: 1-1
The results of these teams works out to a 4 WIN/2 LOSS record for the week.
Results for the year is now a 10 WINS/3 LOSSES season record.
That adds up to a 77% winning percentage.
That is impressive.
Jackson, Tate and Turner all ran for 100 yards in Week #1.
Jackson's Bills are 2-0. Tate's Texans are 2-0. Turner's Falcons are 1-1.
That works out to a 5 WIN/1 LOSS record for repeat/consecutive 100 yard rushers.
That is a 83% winning percentage.
Week #2 had no team with both a 300 yard passers and 100 yard rushers,
Week #1 had one team (Atlanta) with a 300 yard passers and 100 yard rusher.
To calm down the hype of the pass-happy NFL (where did that go after Week #2 all you, experts?), here are the season total results for the 300 yard passers and 100 yard rushers after Week #2:
300 YARD PASSERS
12 WINS 11 LOSSES 52% Winning Percentage
100 YARD RUSHERS
10 WINS 3 LOSSES 77% Winning Percentage
Once again, statistics don't lie.
Wins and losses don't lie, either.
(Statistics from NFL.com)
I watched most of the opening game of the NFL Season that pitted the New Orleans Saints against the defending Super Bowl Champion Green Bay Packers.
I saw Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers throw the ball very well and move the Packers out to a commanding 21-7 lead. I also saw New Orleans quarterback Drew Brees throw the ball well and bring his team back to nearly tie or win a game the Packers seemingly had in the bag.
Rodgers finished the game with 312 yards passing.
Brees finished the game with 419 yards passing.
I did not watch any of the Week 1 game that pitted the New England Patriots against the Miami Dolphins. We all know by now that New England quarterback Tom Brady put on a show passing the football. Some of us are aware that Miami quarterback Chad Henne also racked up some impressive yardage in the air.
Brady finished the game with 517 yards passing.
Henne finished the game with 416 yards passing.
In those two games alone, the team that passed for 300 yards had a won-loss record of 2-2.
In those two games alone, the team that passed for 400 yards had a won-loss record of 2-1.
Of course, the tea that passed for 500 yards had a won-loss record of 1-0, but how often does that happen?
In Week 1 of the 2011 Season, fourteen (14) quarterbacks passed for 300 yards or more.
Not all of those quarterbacks led their teams to wins, as we have seen:
Brady, New England: 517 WIN
Newton, Carolina: 422 LOSS
Brees, New Orleans: 419 LOSS
Henne, Miami: 416 LOSS
Romo, Dallas: 342 LOSS
Rivers, San Diego: 335 WIN
Sanchez, NY Jets: 335 WIN
Ryan, Atlanta: 319 LOSS
Cutler, Chicago: 312 WIN
Rodgers, Green Bay: 312 WIN
Kolb, Arizona: 309 WIN
Grossman, Washington: 305 WIN
Stafford, Detroit: 305 WIN
Orton, Denver: 304 LOSS
The total won-loss record of teams whose quarterback passed for 300 yards or more in Week 1 was a cumulative 8 WINS and 6 LOSSES.
That's a 57% winning percentage.
Not very impressive.
Not much was reported about running backs who rushed for 100 yards or more in Week 1. Certainly a mere 100 yards or so running the ball was not as flashy and exciting as a 500 yard passing game or a couple of 400 yard efforts along with a group of 300 yard passing games.
In Week 1 of the 2011 NFL Season, seven (7) running backs rushed the ball for 100 yards or more. Not all of those running backs led their teams to victories:
McFadden, Oakland: 150 WIN
McCoy, Philadelphia: 122 WIN
Benson, Cincinnati: 121 WIN
Tate, Houston: 116 WIN
Jackson, Buffalo: 112 WIN
Rice, Baltimore: 107 WIN
Turner, Atlanta: 100 LOSS
The total won-loss record of teams whose running back rushed for 100 yards on more in Week 1 was a cumulative 6 WINS and 1 LOSS.
That's an 86% winning percentage.
That is very impressive.
A closer look at the two lists reveals that the only running back who rushed for 100 yards on a team that lost was Michael Turner of the Atlanta Falcons. The quarterback of the Falcons is Matt Ryan. Ryan passed for 319 yards in the same game Turner rushed for 100 yards. The Falcons lost.
In fact, no other running back who rushed for 100 yards or more in Week 1 had a quarterback on his team that passed for 300 yards or more in the same game.
Every other running back, except Turner, who ran for 100 yards led his team to a win.
I think it can be said, at least after one week, the key to winning games in the National Football League lies in being able to successfully run the football.
I have always thought that.
Coaches, analysts and fans have always said that.
After one week of the 2011 NFL season it seems to be the same this year as well.
Statistics don't lie.
Either do Wins and Losses.
(Statistics from NFL.com)
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